Nasdaq Drops as Nvidia Falls While Walmart Hits Record High

February 20, 2024 | Research Dept.

The Nasdaq Composite led losses among major U.S. stock indexes on Tuesday, pulled down by a decline in chipmaker Nvidia Corp while upbeat earnings from Walmart Inc pushed the retailer to a record high.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.2% in midday trading. The benchmark S&P 500 dipped 0.6% while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.4%.

Nvidia Corp shares sank 6.6%, weighing heavily on the Nasdaq, after the chip designer warned on Monday its gaming business revenue would fall short of forecasts for the current quarter. Peers like Advanced Micro Devices Inc and Intel Corp also dropped over 3%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index slid 4.4% as analysts noted the gaming outlook from Nvidia could point to excess inventory and slowing demand in consumer electronics.

Providing some support to the market, Walmart Inc shares hit an all-time high after the world's largest retailer beat quarterly same-store sales estimates and boosted its full-year profit guidance. Walmart shares rose 5.4%.

Home Depot Inc also gained 1.2% after it reported better-than-expected quarterly sales, lending further credence to firm consumer spending so far in 2023 and helping investors shake off some growth fears.

With economic data still portraying that inflation remains hot and the Federal Reserve determined to keep raising interest rates, analysts expect the see-sawing stock market volatility to continue until more convincing signs of cooling prices emerge.

For tech stock investors, the decline in Nvidia weighed heavily on sentiment. Nvidia shares sank 6.6%, dragging down the Nasdaq, after the chip designer warned its gaming business revenue would fall short of forecasts for the current quarter.

This outlook points to a potential inventory glut and slowing demand in consumer electronics using Nvidia's graphics chips, sparking a 4.4% drop in the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor index. Nvidia peers like Advanced Micro Devices and Intel also dropped over 3% on the weak guidance.

Nvidia's warning likely means more volatility ahead for tech investors as the chip sector confronts both a downcycle and competitive pressures.

However, providing some support and upside for market investors was Walmart hitting an all-time high after stronger-than-expected quarterly results. Walmart's 5.4% share gain showed robust consumer resilience and lifted consumer discretionary stocks.

Nonetheless, with inflation still sticky, investors expect continued turbulence until clearer inflation relief prompts the Fed to soften its hawkish stance.

Microsoft Building Own AI Server Chips to Challenge Nvidia

February 19, 2024 | Research Dept.

Microsoft Corp is working on in-house server processor designs specifically for artificial intelligence computing workloads, aiming to lessen reliance on chips from Nvidia Corp, according to a report from The Information on Tuesday.

Citing people with direct knowledge of the plans, the report states Microsoft is developing a specialized AI chip for on-premise server farms. The tech giant hopes its own silicon designs will enable faster AI computations and lower costs in its data centers.

The move represents increased competition for dominant AI chip provider Nvidia, whose GPUs are widely used to train machine learning models and power modern AI services. Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have traditionally relied on Nvidia accelerators for AI inference and training in their cloud infrastructure.

By designing its own AI silicon, Microsoft joins the likes of Amazon and Google in attempting to optimise AI hardware capabilities tailored to their own services and products. Amazon has developed its Trainium chip for machine learning training, while Google unveiled its Tensor Processing Unit for AI in 2019 and continues designing custom processors.

With more companies hopping into the AI silicon space now heating up amid booming demand, more AI chip competition means hardware margins may take a hit. But custom solutions optimised for in-house cloud platforms can potentially improve performance, efficiency and differentiation.

Nvidia has broad customer reach among computer makers and remains the go-to AI chip supplier. But large cloud vendors designing more of their own AI chips could slowly erode Nvidia's dominance in data center computing. Companies racing to enable ever-smarter AI algorithms and products are unlikely to cede all hardware control to a single player.

In that sense, Microsoft flexing its muscles here serves to validate Nvidia investor bets on AI's burgeoning future. But it also signals that retaining dominance in this expansive growth arena may require constantly parrying threats from big tech firms prioritising in-house innovation. The question going forward revolves around whether an independent vendor like Nvidia can keep pushing the limits faster than internal efforts from deep-pocketed giants directing massive resources specifically at their own needs.

Celebrity-Backed Electric Boat Startup Arc Unveils $258,000 Speedboat

February 18, 2024 | Research Dept.

Arc, a Florida-based electric boat startup backed by celebrities like Will Smith and Kevin Durant, has debuted its first model geared for mass market buyers with a starting price of $258,000.

Dubbed the Arc One, it is a 24-foot solar-assisted electric day cruiser capable of reaching speeds over 40 mph, enabled by a modular battery system with up to 200 kWh capacity. Weighing 4,800 pounds distribution across two hulls, the carbon-fiber catamaran contains sustainably sourced, lightweight materials.

The launch marks an important milestone for Arc and the electric marine transport industry as a whole – proving battery-powered boats can deliver high speeds, long range and sleek styling at more reasonable consumer price points.


For investors, Arc's success may point to surging mainstream appeal in electric consumer vessels. This echoes trends in electric vehicles (EVs) like Tesla. Established boat builders Brunswick, Volvo Penta and Yamaha have electric boats in development while startups like Candela and X Shore are drawing investor interest.


Morgan Stanley forecasts the electric marine market reaching $563 billion by 2075. Given recreational boating’s natural fit with electrification and sustainability, Arc making electric speedboats practical for well-heeled buyers could buoy the space.


As with early electric cars, initial costs remain relatively high and charging infrastructure is minimal. But Arc’s high-profile backers lend confidence, and if adoption follows an even faintly similar path to EVs on land then investors can expect handsome returns from companies riding the electric boating wave early on.


U.S. Dollar Down, Aussie Up as China Fuels Growth Optimism

February 17, 2024 | Research Dept.

The U.S. dollar sank against most major currencies on Tuesday while the Australian dollar rallied over 1% as signs of China's economy perking up reignited hopes for improved global growth in 2023.

Investor sentiment received a boost after China reported stronger-than-expected trade data for January. Exports from the world's second-largest economy rose 16.3% year-over-year while imports gained 7.5% as China gradually eases COVID restrictions and reopens from pandemic lows.

The upbeat Chinese trade activity lent more credence to the narrative that economies may skirt severe downturns this year. This has buoyed equities in 2023 so far while dampening demand for safe havens like the dollar.


The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against six other major currencies, slipped 0.9% on the day to 102.95 – hitting its lowest level since last April. Other presumed safe currencies like the Japanese Yen also sank versus riskier assets.


In particular, the China-sensitive Australian Dollar surged 1.2% against the weaker greenback. Improved Chinese business activity bodes well for Australian exporters in materials, minerals and fuels.


For currency traders and investors, an apparent China rebound may shift macro conditions this year away from marked slowdowns and toward resilient growth – reducing support for funding currencies. Moreover, easing U.S. inflation keeps the Federal Reserve from having to maintain an aggressive rate hike pace that boosted the dollar through 2022.


If the trends hold and global growth avoids crashing severely, risk-correlated currencies like the Aussie and emerging market units could extend gains versus safe counterparties like the greenback. Stock markets also seem poised to build on January’s fierce rally if the health of the world’s two largest economies show sustained improvement.


Capital One-Discover Alliance Poses Threat to Visa, Mastercard

February 16, 2024 | Research Dept.

A new long-term payments partnership between Discover Financial Services and Capital One unveiled this week has wide-ranging implications not just for consumers but also investors in the payment processing space.

Under the arrangement, credit card network Discover will gain access to Capital One's customer base of 70 million cardholders in the U.S. By issuing Discover cards, Capital One gains leverage to reduce fees currently paid to dominant payment rails Visa and Mastercard.

For consumers, more Discover acceptance could mean lower costs passed through from merchants. On the flip side, those used to heavy rewards from Visa and Mastercard-fueled cards could see erosion as Capital One shifts focus.


For investors, the tie-up represents an attack on the entrenched duopoly of Visa and Mastercard, which together control over 80% of payment volume. Discover will expand its small 7% market share while also securing a lucrative co-brand deal.


The alliance gives Capital One's cards business more independence from Visa and Mastercard's sprawling networks. By bolstering Discover's scale, Capital One can negotiate better rates to cut processing costs.


To protect per transaction fees and overall take rates, analysts expect Visa and Mastercard will boost incentives by raising rewards offers to card issuers – putting pressure on profit margins.


The deal demonstrates the enduring influence of major issuers, even as fintech payment disruptors grab headlines. Incumbents still dominate daily spend volume. But as consumer preferences evolve, Visa and Mastercard’s growth prospects face renewed threats from alternative payment rails and revenue-sharing models emerging.


This Capital One and Discover teamup may pioneer a shift toward more issuer direct relationships with networks beyond the leading two. For investors, that introduces new variables and competitors into the payments ecosystem. Of course Visa and Mastercard won’t cede ground easily given their vast scale and device penetration via banks worldwide. But the rare partnership for Discover does establish a beachhead encouraging others to mount similar revolts.


The next few years will prove pivotal in determining whether the Visa-Mastercard dynasty remains intact or sees a more balanced playing field emerge. With the consumer and business landscape transformed since COVID, a changing of the guard may no longer appear so farfetched.